When It’s Time For a Change

Sunday Barry Zito capped off what may be the worst month of his career with the worst game of his season.

Zito allowed eight runs in three innings in a complete disaster of a game. He walked three while striking out only one, picking up -.429 WPA. The Albatross now sits 0-6 with a 7.58 and the grim spectre of 20 losses staring him straight in the face.

The reasons for Zito’s lack of effectiveness have been well documented. His fastball is sitting at around 83 mph and he’s lost velocity on all of his pitches. His K/9 rate has dropped from 8.61 in 2001 to 3.45 so far this year.

I’ve been digging through his stats – his peripherals, splits, tea leaves – trying to pick up any other causes and there are a few odd things. His batted ball rates (line dive, ground ball, fly ball and HR/FB rates) are all within his career norms. I expected his line drive rate (19.6) to have skyrocketed with lessened stuff but it’s actually lower than last year.

And that makes his .346 BABIP seem a little fluky. Zito has always had lower than expected BABIP and so far this year it’s almost .030 more than expected. He has given up 41 hits in 28.2 IP. Below is Zito’s H/9 since 2004

	H/9
2004	9.13
2005	7.29
2006	8.59
2007	8.33
2008	12.86

So Zito has been somewhat unlucky but he hasn’t been helping himself out much. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play and more walks mean when those unlucky hits fall it hurts that much more.

Looking through the splits it’s hard to find any situation he’s done well in. What really struck me was his stats after the count went 1-2. In 38 PA batters are hitting .316 with a sOPS+ of 211. That seems to go to his lack of an out pitch. According to Josh Kalk’s pitch fx tool Zito is still throwing his weak-ass fastball nearly half the time with two strikes.

It’s been said around that Zito needs to learn to be Jamie Moyer. He needs to spend more time with his huge hook and pitch instead of try to overpower people. If his two-strike selections are any indication he’s a long way from that.