When It’s Time For a Change

The big to-do the last week has been Bruce Bochy’s idea to move to a six-man rotation once Noah Lowry gets back instead of sending Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez either to the bullpen or Fresno.

Yesterday Nick at Giants’ Cove was none too pleased with the idea. His argument was that babying the young pitchers by about five starts isn’t going to help train their arms for when the team does need 32 starts a year and 200 IP out of them:

When and if the Giants return to a 5-man staff, starters will have to re-adjust to four days off between starts instead of the five they’d be undoubtedly accustomed to. Essentially, it’s like walking 3 miles a day in order to run 8 miles in the near future; their arms are being protected, but in exchange for the valuable ability to endure a long season.

He said the team would be better of trading some of the extra parts now and keeping Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, the Albatross and the rest on a five-day rotation.

Overall it makes a lot of sense. Why make the two best players, those most likely to contribute to the next winning team, readjust their habits season to season?

The only problem is that the next winning team is not 2009. It’s probably not 2010 either but let’s not think about that. That means that whatever happens this year would have at least one season to be undone.

Relaxing the load on a few young pitchers this year, around 160 IP, and then bringing them back up to 180 IP next year is not a terrible thing. As long as their pitch counts are still controlled they should get some on the job experience while not taxing their arms unnecessarily.

But that’s not the only gain. I agree with Nick that trading one of the extra parts will benefit the club in the long run. But now is not the time.

Teams pay premiums for known quantities. One of the greatest tools general managers have at their disposal is playing time. Put a player in good situations and build up a history and you’ve added value they didn’t have before. It’s what Billy Beane used to do with closers. Take an unknown quantity, build up its value and then trade it off.

That’s where a six man rotation can help the Giants. By giving all six playing time the Giants are building value in each. Sabean can then trade off one at the deadline or in the offseason or whenever the value has reached its peak.

I see a six-man rotation as harmless this season and potentially a way to get more talent into the lineup. But I’m only in support if this is a temporary thing. Once the situation is figured out get back to five or hell, try a four man rotation. But for now I think this could work.