When It’s Time For a Change

Before I get into today’s post a little update on the Brian Sabean series I’m working on. I’ll be starting on Sabean’s draft record this weekend. I was hoping to have it up yesterday but got called into work for an overtime shift. In a related story, my free time is worth about $200. So give me a call if you need any help around the house. I’m available.

In a surprise move Giants have actually had a bunch of interesting story lines recently. From winning five of their last seven games to the force that is John Bowker and a bullpen that gets outs, things are slightly different than I may have expected only a month ago. And even slightly different is a good thing.

But even with things changing I’m still drawn to one of the few things we all looked forward to this season, the right arm of Tim Lincecum. And while the young man is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA if you look at the numbers he could have been better.

Lincecum has a .424 BABIP so far, compared to .295 last season. His expected BABIP is around .350 since he’s given up 23 percent line drives and BABIP is close to LD percentage plus 12 percent.

Now it’s early. His 23 percent line drives are nine balls in play. Still, just for fun I checked up the run value of a line drive (around .35 runs) and the run value of the line drives Lincecum has given up and found his have hurt his line more than one would expect.

Lincecum’s line drives have had a combine value of 4.78 runs, while the expected runs would have been 3.20. So that means even though Lincecum has a 2.25 ERA he’s been unlucky so far. His FIP shows that, coming in at a stingy 1.44.

Like I said, 16 IP isn’t really any kind of a sample to look at. But this is still fun stuff to play with, especially when it makes Lincecum look better than he really is.