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As is quickly becoming a tradition I received the Bill James Handbook for Christmas yet again. This is a very good tradition. And as I’ve found happens when I get the handbook I start writing a bit more.
I wont go into most of the player stats, which can be obtained in some form elsewhere, or the projections which can be had (in sortable tables no less) here.
But one of the things I enjoy most is the manager profiles. For as little as a I think a manager can affect a game, it’s fun to see what they think they can do. For instance the Mets under Willie Randolph attempted 246 steals, leading the league for the second time in three years. But that may have had more to do with Jose Reyes than Randolph.
I always head straight for the Giants’ manager first and this year was an interesting experiment. Bruce Bochy, who had a huge track record established with only one team, finally moving to a new situation. Would he change his tendencies away from Petco and with a new set of talent, or would he manage strictly to the team?
Bochy lead the league in two categories; long outings (110+ pitches) and platoon percentage.
Platoon percentage is something he’s lead the league in twice and also something he’s done pretty consistently throughout his career so it makes sense it would continue in San Francisco.
And most of Bochy’s decisions went with his career norms, be that a little above or below the average manager. He used a few more lineups and attempted a few more steals than other managers in 2007, but otherwise he was pretty boring.
But what bothers me is the long outings. In his previous 12 years with the Padres Bochy average 42 quick-hook games and 15 long outings. This year he had 26 quick-hooks and 36 long outings.
And what bothers me the most is that 16 of those starts, nearly half, belonged to Matt Cain, owner of a 22-year-old right arm. According to BP Cain finished seventh in the majors with 1885.34 abuse points per start and eighth overall. Abuse points exist to show when arms are being overused and pushing dangerously close to injury. Why would Bochy be pushing Cain in the middle of a lost season to possibly injure half of the organization’s hope in a post-Barry world?
Well, here’re the averages from Cain’s 16 starts with 110 or more pitches:
| GS | Record | IP | H | ERA | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pit | Str | GmScr | Score |
| 16 | 3-7 | 6.81 | 5.3 | 2.64 | 2.688 | 6.25 | 0.5 | 28.31 | 114.5 | 72.06 | 61 | +0.33 |
It seems obvious looking at the Games why Bochy let him pitch so long: In only two starts did he leave with a difference of three or more runs, both times with the Giants ahead (one of which they ended up losing). In those 16 games Cain had an ERA of 2.64. Bochy was just letting a good pitcher finish up a good game.
Cain also came out at the end of an inning 10 times. I wonder if his pitch counts would have been maybe a batter or two smaller in the American League where Bochy wouldn’t have had to worry about Cain’s spot in the order.
While those may be reasons why Bochy chose to stretch Cain it’s no excuse for letting your best young pitcher hit 110+ 16 times, half of his starts in 2007. But maybe this can’t all be laid at Bochy’s feet.
Cain came out in the sixth three times, four times after the seventh and nine times in or at the completion of the seventh. Only five times all year did he pitch into the seventh and not get over 110 pitches.
It seems Cain needs to be more efficient with his pitches. His walks were a tick higher in these starts then his season average. And maybe the only way Cain can learn to pitch better while tired late in a game is to do so.
But the funny thing about that is how different his walks were in his first eight 110+ starts than the second half. His first eight starts he walked fewer than three only once, a loss to the Mets on May 31. In his second eight starts he walked three or more not once. But the results weren’t that much better.
| IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | BF | Pit | Str | GmSc | Pit/BF | |
| First 8 | 55.4 | 39 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 46 | 3 | 2.44 | 233 | 918 | 555 | 493 | 3.9 |
| Second 8 | 53.5 | 46 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 54 | 5 | 2.86 | 220 | 914 | 598 | 483 | 4.2 |
It’ll be interesting to watch how Cain’s efficiency progresses next season and how he’s treated by his manager.
I promised a non-alarmist, calm headed look at Aaron Rowand. Maybe even looking into the good side of the signing. This may not live up to those high-minded ideals but it will shoot for them.
OK, here we go. Unlike Petco, Mays Field only slightly reduces runs. What it does that helps pitchers is kill home runs. Rowand is the type of player that the Giants should sign to take advantage of this unique space the team plays in.
Mays Field’s Triple’s Alley in left-center plays to hitters with doubles power with enough speed to stretch those to extra bases and not enough power to kill their value through decreased home run power. It also requires quick, plus-fielding outfielders.
Rowand has hit 30 or more doubles in every season he’s had at least 500 PA (‘04, ‘05, and ‘07) and since 2005 is +21 on the Fielding Bible +/- system. While not the best fielder, by many accounts he is above average.
While Barry Bonds has shown that no park can defend against a guy who can hit the ball 500 feet, those guys are expensive and few and far between. Until the team can develop one of those it needs to go after outfielders such as Rowand with a little power and good range to play to the strengths of the park.
But the reason to do that is to get players other teams don’t value so you can build cheap and mistakes don’t cost you that much. The Giants are so far behind the game at this point they need to steal talent wherever they possibly can and save money to lock up the pitchers they seem to be able to develop. Finding players whose talents can only be best used on your field is definitely a start.
Signing Rowand at his peak value is not the way to go about it. So my happy face analysis is that Sabean has found himself a player that should work well in San Francisco, but not at this price, at 30 years old and at this team’s pace of development. Maybe in a few years, if Rowand continues to play at his current level, this might turn out to be a key signing for a winning team. But so many steps have to happen between here and there it just looks like Sabean is grasping for anyone who can help keep this team out of the record books offensively next year.
Filed under: Bonds, Brian Sabean, Dave Roberts, Doom, Giants, Matt Cain, Randy Winn, Tim Lincecum, Transactions, Worst Third Baseman in the Major Leagues
But for the Giants the best thing that can happen is nothing. No free agent signings. No major trades. No discussions with Pedro Feliz.
-Me, Dec. 3, 2007
Just over a week. That was all the time it took for Brian Sabean to completely destroy any remaining faith I had in him. And really, I’m surprised he held out that long.
Today he signed Aaron Rowand to a five-year, $60 million deal. Which isn’t so bad in itself than in what it represents.
Rowand serves no particular need for a team in the Giants’ situation. Not only do they have a player who can hold down center in Randy Winn (not to mention Fred Lewis, Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis, though those aren’t great options) but the team isn’t at that point where Rowand can make any significant difference.
This year Rowand was worth around 8-9 wins to the Phillies (7.8 WARP1, 90 win shares), though outside of Philly and with a slight drop next year let’s just say the Giants improve by six games just from him. Congratulations, even going by Pythagoras you are now an 83-win team. And that’s with Barry Bonds.
Rowand is a player you add when you are at 80-wins on paper and you need to get into the playoffs. Yes, the rise of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain could potentially offset the loss of Bonds, Ray Durham could return to professional baseball and in Bruce Jenkins’ wet-dream Rowand could provide the spark everyone was lacking while a Bonds-less clubhouse gains a magical five wins by not being so pissy anymore. But with two huge holes bookending the infield and nothing waiting until Angel Villalona, Rowand doesn’t seem to make much sense.
This signing shows Sabean is either overly optimistic at how fast this team can rebuild or has no plan on how to rebuild. After months of talking about how the young players were going to get a chance and that there would be an acceptance of starting over, Sabean pulls out a decidely Sabean move.
At five years Rowand will be 35 when this contract finishes. The Giants do not need a 35-year-old starting CF in 2012 or a $12 million bench player.
But the numbers that really get me are the ones below.
.309/.374/.515
.313/.368/.521
That top line what Rowand did this year. The line below? His 90th percentile PECOTA projection. Way to skim for potential bargains, Sabes.
(I’ll try and look at the good side of this deal tomorrow, but I just needed to get that out now before calm and reason returned.)
Filed under: Giants, Matt Cain, Rumors, Tim Lincecum, Transactions, Worst Third Baseman in the Major Leagues
Most off-seasons present a chance to be optimistic. Adding that new third starter or that guy for the fifth-slot to protect the core from last year is all it will take. Those young guys who came on like gangbusters in September will come into their own and rule the division.
But for the Giants the best thing that can happen is nothing. No free agent signings. No major trades. No discussions with Pedro Feliz. Not that losing Noah Lowry would be small, but it’s not like auctioning off Johan Santana to the Evil Empires or the semi-annual Fish Swap Fire Sale.
All Brian Sabean needs to do to reclaim my and maybe many other fans’ faith is not screw things up more than he already has. That’s what was so reassuring about his statement that Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were hanging around unless he was “shocked.” And what makes things such as this so shocking.
Now, remember, the link above goes to a Canadian source. Who knows what kind of crazy things are going on up there.
But if Sabean is pulling out of the Miguel Cabrera talks over Cain and Lincecum but is simply waiting for Alex Rios to pull the trigger … well, that is a world I no longer want to be a part of.
I have no faith in the rumor as reported (Troy Glaus is also mentioned). Sabean may be trying to pull that off but unless he has been flat out lying than Jonathan Sanchez is probably the target.
Either way it is just one more reminder that while these rumors are fun they are worth less than the stock of the newspapers that publish them.
Filed under: Brad Hennessey, Giants, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Transactions
The first few months of After Barry seem to be going as well as anyone could have expected. Brian Sabean appears to have woken up from his nearly decade long infatuation with over priced veterans at every position. In a well publicized conference call he came out and said that the team has to be ready to take chances with unproven young players in starting positions.
The newest rumor is that fallen prospect Andy Marte of the Indians is on the radar. Whether or not he will someday be a star isn’t really the point. The key is that he is the type of player the team has to look at. Nine Andy Marte’s could produce one Carlos Pena. That would go a long way over the next five years to making a competitive offense to go with Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and the rest of the staff.
This isn’t new stuff. But in looking at the Marte rumor I saw what the Giants have that matches up well with the Indians is relief pitching. They know Joe Borowski isn’t a real closer. If he implodes that moves Rafeal Betancourt out of the eighth and the team wants a player ready to step in to that role.
The Giants have a glut of relievers that are sitting just below that level, but Marte may be so far in the dog house it doesn’t matter. I started looking first at Brad Hennessey, because 19 shinny saves can go a long way in creating an overvalued player.
But is Hennessey the new Joe Nathan? Both players began as starters, performed around average and then pitched somewhat better as relievers. Nathan had an ERA+ of 142 in 2003, compared to 130 for Hennessey this year. Hennessey’s K/BB wasn’t as impressive, but if you match the two up by age they follow a similar path (Especially age’s 24 and 25 when both were starters). Nathan’s 2003 was his age 29 season, 2007 was Hennessey’s 27.
What kills the comparison is the huge jump in K/9 Nathan had in 2003, to over a K per inning. Hennessey isn’t anywhere near that and probably wont be. But as I said Nathan was two years older than Hennessey, so we’ll see how he progresses. But in an offseason where it seems like most people will be happy as long as Cain and Lincecum stay put, that there’re are plenty of ways to lose talent for nothing. Taking a flyer on Marte is great, but that’s no reason to just throw players off the bus.
