When It’s Time For a Change


The End of a Bloated ERA
May 31, 2007, 9:05 pm
Filed under: Armando Benitez, Giants, Transactions

Armando Benitez has been moved to greener pastures. Or at least out to pasture. Wherever he is, it is not San Francisco. The large-one, Mando to his friends, is once again a Florida Marlin.

This should be great for Mando. In Miami he will be free to play without worrying about whether or not anyone is watching and never have to save any meaningful games (not that he would have with the Giants either, but the joke stands. Rim shot anyone?)

And the Giants get to add another mediocre reliever in the person of Randy Messenger while still paying Mando the majority of his $7.6 million contract. Win Win Win.

Looking at Messenger’s minor league stats, he really needs to be his control under, um, control. His career minor league BB/9 is 3.65, and his major league rate is 4.69. Plus, he also doesn’t strike out a ton of guys and gives up his share of home runs (well, historically. He has yet to give one up in 23.2 innings this season). Here’s what Rotoworld said of his chances in the Giants’ Bullpen:
His quality fastball-slider combination has allowed him to survive as a middle man, but he doesn’t have the command to handle late-inning duties.

So, my questions are: Was Mando really that bad that the Giants needed to trade him for a lower-tier reliever and still pay his salary? Was the situation so terrible they couldn’t wait to see if he could play his way into a better trade? Was it so terrible they couldn’t wait until the deadline when the market would supposedly be better for someone like Mando?

I don’t know what Brian Sabean has been hearing around the league or if Messenger was the Marlins best offer over letting Sabean look at their World Series trophies for 15 minutes apiece. But from here it looks like a forced move that won’t improve the team now or in the future, and could actually turn out to be a negative if Mando turns things around in Florida and Messenger doesn’t improve. Like any trade it will take time to see who got the better of who. Middle relievers step up all the time and do weird things like, I don’t know, be productive. But if nothing else I don’t like the spirit the trade was done in.

I hated watching Benitez come in. Every time he threw I was expecting failure, which didn’t make it hurt any less when it came. The Met game was absolutely unacceptable for a major league closer. All that said, if this was the best Sabean could do I wonder if it really needed to happen now.

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The Great Zito
May 9, 2007, 11:46 am
Filed under: Barry Zito, Giants

I am never one to leave well enough alone. I’m a Giants fan. I love to poke holes in any and all points of light surrounding my team. Today I’ve decided to make myself feel worse about Barry Zito’s early success.

This started as an examination into today’s starting pitcher for the Mets, John Maine. So far the 26-year-old has a sub 2.00 ERA and looks like one of the better pitchers in the majors. But a close look at his stats shows a .220 BABIP, which suggests young Maine will soon be back up towards his expected ERA of around 3.30.

That got me thinking about which Giants starters are playing over their head. Matt Morris was too obvious, so I moved on to Zito.

The fact that Zito, whose walk and strikeout numbers have been moving in the wrong direction the last few seasons, is pitching better than expected isn’t all that shocking. But I wanted to find out exactly what was different and what we could expect to change.

A quick check at Fangraphs showed one graph that was way out of whack: Home runs. Zito has given up only one home run this season, a rate of 0.20 HR/9, where Zito’s lifetime average is 0.91. What’s more is that his HR/FB rate is 2.1 percent, compared to a lifetime average of 8.4 percent.

HR/FB rates normally hover around 11 percent. The last two seasons Zito’s been at 9 and 10.4 percent. Batters have hit 47 flyballs off Zito this year. A straight up 10 percent would give him four home runs expected if you round down. Just those three extra runs would raise his ERA from 3.65 to 4.28, and that’s without trying to guess how many runners would have been on base.

One could argue that moving to pitcher-friendly Pac Bell/ATT/Mays Field has lowered his expected home run rate, but the two parks have played pretty close recently. Last season Mays Field was last and the Coliseum 24th, while in 2005 they were 17th and 19th respectively, according to ESPN. And while five of Zito’s seven starts have been at home, his only home run was in San Francisco.

What’s interesting is that since home runs are a three-true-outcomes result, his luck isn’t represented in his FIP ERA, which is lower than his actual ERA. But his xFIP at the Hardball Times is 4.24, almost exactly what his home run rate would predict. So while Zito looked sharp against the Mets — a well placed curve ball like Zito’s may be my favorite thing in baseball — we can expect a few more of those fly balls to hit the seats. We can only hope that wont derail him too much.

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Cats and Dogs. Living Together.
May 3, 2007, 4:44 pm
Filed under: Giants, Tim Lincecum

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

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May 2, 2007, 9:45 am
Filed under: Chris Haft, Giants, NFL Draft, Raiders, Tim Lincecum, Warriors

With all of the excitement in the Bay Area sports world recently — the Warriors and Sharks in the playoffs, the Raiders with the first pick in the NFL draft — let me begin the discussions with something of very little importance to the San Francisco Giants.

  • From Chris Haft’s notebook at MLB.com Monday:
    Although Lincecum relieved in college at the University of Washington, his bullpen experience was limited. He wouldn’t have the mental or physical frame of reference to draw upon, so to speak, that Papelbon could as a guy who closed last season. Converting Lincecum to the bullpen would be a risky move to make with such a valuable young arm.

    I don’t put much into the whole “Closer’s Mentality” idea, though I concede if someone has a nervous breakdown on the mound it could affect his control. But what bothered me about this is that Haft says Papelbon will be a good closer this year because he has the experience from last season. But last season he had 35 saves with a .92 ERA. How was he able to do that?

    The correct answer is that Papelbon was a closer in college. In 2003 at Miss. St. Papelbon threw 47.1 innings, all relief, striking out more than a batter an inning. His first season in the minors half of his appearances were in relief. But Haft never mentions this. It’s not a big deal, but it took me 20 seconds to look up and would have added more strength to his argument.

    On the issue in general I think Lincecum needs to stay a starter for the time being. Last season the Red Sox felt the were a legitimate World Series contender which had a glaring weakness at the end of their bullpen. With a stacked rotation they let a potential starter close. No big deal. But the Giants aren’t one piece away from being a contender. I think Lincecum needs to be in the majors soon, but at the expense of a trade of Matt Morris, Matt Morris or Armando Benitez (with Ortiz moving to the bullpen). There’s no reason to mess with his arm in order to get that elusive 82nd win.

  • The Raiders went out and did what everyone has expected since LSU trounced Notre Dame and picked JaMarcus Russell. I have no idea whether or not JMR will be the quarterback everyone dreams off, but this was a move the Raiders needed to make. Knowing it will take two to three years for JMR to develop shows the team is ready to rebuild. With Lane Kiffin probably needing two to three years to figure what he’s doing, Josh McKown can work out the kinks in the system while JMR sits by and watches.

    I also really liked the pick up of Mike Williams in the McKown deal. Money means nothing in the NFL, so picking up someone with first-round talent is always worth the gamble. If he doesn’t pan out no big deal. But the upside is there.

  • The Warriors bandwagon is getting quite full, but I’m comfortable with my spot way in the back. My boss asked me the other day where they fit on my sports hierarchy and I answered somewhere below the Sharks, which is true. I used to be a big NBA fan, but recently I haven’t been able to get into it.

    Still, I’ve never let myself root for any other team besides the Warriors. I can’t claim to have suffered like true Warriors fans so I won’t take credit for the team like some are doing. I recognize I’m a casual fan now, but if I ever do get into basketball they are the only team I’ll go with. So for now I take pleasure in the battle they’re giving the Mavericks. Maybe someday it will be more.

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