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Filed under: Uncategorized
One of the concepts that I’ve been thinking about more recently is defense.
The ugly stepchild of sabermetrics family tree, defense has never liked to do out on the family outings with pitching and hitting or take part in board game night. We’ve never really been able to relate.
But with the stats available, so far the Giants are not faring well.
The team is currently 17 plays below average in the Hardball Times plus/minus ratings, good for second-worst in the National league (good lord, the Pirates are bad, at -30). That’s 17 extra outs for Giants’ pitchers.
Part of the problem is that the Giants infield has only made 61 out of zone plays, compared with a league average of 75. I still have a lot to learn about defensive metrics (one of the reasons I’m writing this) but that seems to suggest that the Giants are missing some infield range as players aren’t able to go much further than the area designated to them.
Indeed, Giants infielders rank very low in RZR, the percentage of balls in their zone turned into outs. Ray Durham and Eugenio Velez each have the lowest ratings for their inning levels (186 and 287 respectively), Jose Castillo is 12th among qualified players at third, and if Rich Aurilia qualified at first he’d be just ahead of Prince Fielder, fourth-worst in the league
The Giants shortstops have fielded better, as was to be expected for a trio of no-hit, all field players in Emanuel Burriss, Brian Bocock and Omar Vizquel. Combined they have basically been Kahil Greene, playing 530 innings with 19 OOZ plays.
In a season heralded as “Pitching and Defense to the Rescue!” the defense part has not been up to par. While the team FIP is only .03 lower than actual ERA (4.31 to 4.34) this team doesn’t have the offense to support “average” in the field. The solace of course is that a majority of the offenders may be gone next year, but this will be something to keep an eye on as Sabean rebuilds this team over the next few years.
The Giants really tried to squeeze an entire season into the last week.
There was a historical milestone in Omar Vizquel breaking Luis Apparicio’s mark for most games played at shortstop, a sweep of NL West leaders Arizona (including victories over Randy Johnson and Dan Haren), a triple play, a 13-inning game and the Annexation of Puerto Rico.
But in the end it seems unfulfilling. The team sandwiched that sweep – one of the best moments of the young season – between a pair of losses to the Marlins and the Padres. They were unable to win the day Omar broke Aparicio’s record or the day they honored it.
One of the things I love about baseball can be the most maddening. With 162 games there are just as many opportunities for spectacular moments, tiny glimpses that can make almost any team seem just a step away from taking over the league. As great as the Diamondbacks sweep was one game, albeit a 13-inning killer, can make it all seem like it happened months ago.
Bad teams are most often inconsistent, and we’ve seen that with the Giants. As great as some times have been, stretches where it seems like 2009 could be better than we think it will, there are games where the only team with a worse record in the NL West can take it all away.
May’s now over, ending a month where the Giants bats seemed to wake up to some extent. Their .269/.333/.422 slash over the month was good for a 105 OPS+, meaning this team was actually above-average the whole month. That’s with this past week, which saw the team post a .245/.317/.381.
That jump has come fortunately from veterans such as Ray Durham (127 OPS+ in May), Aaron Rowand and Benjie Molina, I say fortuntely becuase as the months now start with ‘J’ it’s time to start thinking about getting anything we can to build forward.
With that in mind maybe this week wasn’t so bad. If there’s anytime to try to live a lifetime in a week it’s just before the trade deadline, when every little thing gets so blown out of proportion players such as Durham and Molina can seem valuable to a contender. So yeah, Giants, keep on living like there is no tomorrow. Becuase hopefully for a few, there isn’t. At least not in San Francisco.
At the outset of the Aaron Rowand deal I was not pleased. Basic arguments applied. Money spent on an aging, mediocre player at a position the Giants were already stocked at seemed unnecessary at best and financially irresponsible in almost all cases.
Those things may all still be true but right now the Giants’ offense is basically Rowand and nothing more. In terms of batting runs above average the Giants have seven players in the black but only four in the top 50 in the NL. Two of those happen to be the recently resurrected Omar Vizquel (welcome back Dreamy!) and backup catcher Steve Holm (did you know he’s from Sacramento? teh cool!!!).
Still, Rowand’s BRAA of 7.36 isn’t fantastic. It’s great to have on a team but the Diamondbacks and Pirates each have three players above Rowand. Even at that if you remove his contribution from the lineup it moves the Giants from competing with the Padres for the worst offense in the league to easily the sorriest lineup in the NL. Rowand’s WPA of 0.6 suggests he’s already added at least a win to the team’s record.
But is this a good thing for the Giants? Is the $12 million going to Rowand a year worth making the Giants on par with the other terrible offense in the division instead of historically bad?
Really, despite the fact that Rowand has been the best performer on a terrible ofensive club, I don’t think so. Yeah, it’s cool the the team is only six games under .500 than eight, but in the long run that doesn’t mean anything. Even if Rowand is the difference between a 100-loss and 98-loss season the money and lost roster spot isn’t worth it.
I had a long conversation with a co-worker a few weeks ago about whether it was worth it to let Zito stay on the team and hopefully work out his problems are just cut him and eat the deal, assuming you could pay it off over the length of the deal.
He said you had to get rid of him because it was making the team worse and you couldn’t afford having him on the mound every fifth day. I argued that Zito wasn’t the difference between a good team and a bad team, so what’s the point?
All in all there aren’t enough decisions for this club that could make it good. Playing Zito doesn’t matter, playing Rowand doesn’t matter. So yeah, Rowand is far and away the best hitter on the Giants and has obviously made the offense better. But that doesn’t mean it was a good idea to bring him in.
Filed under: Uncategorized
… the highest-paid relief pitcher of all time.
Oh, Sabean. To think he got an extension AFTER signing this contract. Sigh.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Sunday Barry Zito capped off what may be the worst month of his career with the worst game of his season.
Zito allowed eight runs in three innings in a complete disaster of a game. He walked three while striking out only one, picking up -.429 WPA. The Albatross now sits 0-6 with a 7.58 and the grim spectre of 20 losses staring him straight in the face.
The reasons for Zito’s lack of effectiveness have been well documented. His fastball is sitting at around 83 mph and he’s lost velocity on all of his pitches. His K/9 rate has dropped from 8.61 in 2001 to 3.45 so far this year.
I’ve been digging through his stats – his peripherals, splits, tea leaves – trying to pick up any other causes and there are a few odd things. His batted ball rates (line dive, ground ball, fly ball and HR/FB rates) are all within his career norms. I expected his line drive rate (19.6) to have skyrocketed with lessened stuff but it’s actually lower than last year.
And that makes his .346 BABIP seem a little fluky. Zito has always had lower than expected BABIP and so far this year it’s almost .030 more than expected. He has given up 41 hits in 28.2 IP. Below is Zito’s H/9 since 2004
H/9 2004 9.13 2005 7.29 2006 8.59 2007 8.33 2008 12.86
So Zito has been somewhat unlucky but he hasn’t been helping himself out much. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play and more walks mean when those unlucky hits fall it hurts that much more.
Looking through the splits it’s hard to find any situation he’s done well in. What really struck me was his stats after the count went 1-2. In 38 PA batters are hitting .316 with a sOPS+ of 211. That seems to go to his lack of an out pitch. According to Josh Kalk’s pitch fx tool Zito is still throwing his weak-ass fastball nearly half the time with two strikes.
It’s been said around that Zito needs to learn to be Jamie Moyer. He needs to spend more time with his huge hook and pitch instead of try to overpower people. If his two-strike selections are any indication he’s a long way from that.
Filed under: Giants
The big to-do the last week has been Bruce Bochy’s idea to move to a six-man rotation once Noah Lowry gets back instead of sending Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez either to the bullpen or Fresno.
Yesterday Nick at Giants’ Cove was none too pleased with the idea. His argument was that babying the young pitchers by about five starts isn’t going to help train their arms for when the team does need 32 starts a year and 200 IP out of them:
When and if the Giants return to a 5-man staff, starters will have to re-adjust to four days off between starts instead of the five they’d be undoubtedly accustomed to. Essentially, it’s like walking 3 miles a day in order to run 8 miles in the near future; their arms are being protected, but in exchange for the valuable ability to endure a long season.
He said the team would be better of trading some of the extra parts now and keeping Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, the Albatross and the rest on a five-day rotation.
Overall it makes a lot of sense. Why make the two best players, those most likely to contribute to the next winning team, readjust their habits season to season?
The only problem is that the next winning team is not 2009. It’s probably not 2010 either but let’s not think about that. That means that whatever happens this year would have at least one season to be undone.
Relaxing the load on a few young pitchers this year, around 160 IP, and then bringing them back up to 180 IP next year is not a terrible thing. As long as their pitch counts are still controlled they should get some on the job experience while not taxing their arms unnecessarily.
But that’s not the only gain. I agree with Nick that trading one of the extra parts will benefit the club in the long run. But now is not the time.
Teams pay premiums for known quantities. One of the greatest tools general managers have at their disposal is playing time. Put a player in good situations and build up a history and you’ve added value they didn’t have before. It’s what Billy Beane used to do with closers. Take an unknown quantity, build up its value and then trade it off.
That’s where a six man rotation can help the Giants. By giving all six playing time the Giants are building value in each. Sabean can then trade off one at the deadline or in the offseason or whenever the value has reached its peak.
I see a six-man rotation as harmless this season and potentially a way to get more talent into the lineup. But I’m only in support if this is a temporary thing. Once the situation is figured out get back to five or hell, try a four man rotation. But for now I think this could work.
Filed under: Brian Sabean
Today I’m counting my series looking at Brian Sabean’s track record as GM of the Giants. Last time out I wrapped up my look at Sabean’s trade record so today we start looking at the draft.
There has been an image of the Giants’ draft strategy under Brian Sabean: They draft pitchers or they don’t draft at all.
The team has a reputation of drafting and developing mainly pitchers and during the team’s run of success of using free agency to get rid of as many picks as possible.
I’ll get to those topic eventually but today I wanted to start small and just see how well the Giants have done compared to other teams in finding major league talent in the draft since Sabean took over. I’m using restrosheet transaction info, Dave Studeman’s win shares database and the Lahman database to see how many win shares teams have drafted and kept during Sabean’s tenure, starting with the 1997 draft.
During that time the Giants drafted players who would generate 220 win shares in their time in the majors, with 129 coming with the Giants. That means of all the value the Giants have drafted in that time they kept 59 percent of it.
Those 220 win shares rank 24th in baseball during that time span (this study doesn’t look at players who debuted in 2007). For comparison here are the top five teams:
Team WS 1 SLN 725 2 OAK 706 3 TOR 673 4 PHI 546 5 COL 531
The Giants kept percentage of 59 percent was 19th in baseball. Again, here are the leaders:
Team WS WSKept PCT 1 MIN 272 259 95% 2 MIL 185 171 92% 3 HOU 469 407 87% 4 ATL 228 196 86% 5 TBA 417 354 85%
The Giants were in the bottom half of the league in both respects. And it wasn’t simply a lack of first round picks. The Giants had more first round picks, 18, than all but five teams. Unfortunately the team’s average position in those picks was 28th, lower than all but five teams.
Just for fun here’s Sabean’s greatest hits list, first for win shares with the Giants and then win shares overall:
First Last WS Marvin Benard 71 Bill Mueller 63 Russ Ortiz 50 Noah Lowry 30 Joe Nathan 19 ----- Bill Mueller 139 Keith Foulke 110 Russ Ortiz 74 Marvin Benard 71 Joe Nathan 66
Finally, a list Marvin Bernard can top.
Overall the Giants have been a poor drafting team in Sabean’s time as GM. Of course that’s not Earth-shaking analysis as the farm system has been threadbare for quite a while.
But why has the team done so poorly? Next time I’m going to dig into the types of players that Sabean likes to draft and see if I can’t figure out what it is about those players that keeps them from developing.
Filed under: Tim Lincecum
Before I get into today’s post a little update on the Brian Sabean series I’m working on. I’ll be starting on Sabean’s draft record this weekend. I was hoping to have it up yesterday but got called into work for an overtime shift. In a related story, my free time is worth about $200. So give me a call if you need any help around the house. I’m available.
In a surprise move Giants have actually had a bunch of interesting story lines recently. From winning five of their last seven games to the force that is John Bowker and a bullpen that gets outs, things are slightly different than I may have expected only a month ago. And even slightly different is a good thing.
But even with things changing I’m still drawn to one of the few things we all looked forward to this season, the right arm of Tim Lincecum. And while the young man is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA if you look at the numbers he could have been better.
Lincecum has a .424 BABIP so far, compared to .295 last season. His expected BABIP is around .350 since he’s given up 23 percent line drives and BABIP is close to LD percentage plus 12 percent.
Now it’s early. His 23 percent line drives are nine balls in play. Still, just for fun I checked up the run value of a line drive (around .35 runs) and the run value of the line drives Lincecum has given up and found his have hurt his line more than one would expect.
Lincecum’s line drives have had a combine value of 4.78 runs, while the expected runs would have been 3.20. So that means even though Lincecum has a 2.25 ERA he’s been unlucky so far. His FIP shows that, coming in at a stingy 1.44.
Like I said, 16 IP isn’t really any kind of a sample to look at. But this is still fun stuff to play with, especially when it makes Lincecum look better than he really is.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Ah, the blessed off-day, a time of reflection and self-contemplation.
The Giants started the season a disastrous 1-6, confirming everyone pundit and casual fan’s idea of the team. There was no offense, Barry Zito looked terrible and the old guys were dropping like flys.
But we are now faced with a three-game winning streak. Damn you Giants! All this talk of winning with pitching, defense and base running and you go out and do it three times in a row?
Deadspin noticed by putting the team at the top of the MLB Closer with the headline “Giants Win Three Straight? That’s Unpossible!“
But before we get too cocky lets remember what this season has inspired already:
- Rob Neyer(subscription only) looked at just how bad the Giants could be, projecting what turned out to be an optimistic 70 wins.
- Baseball Prospectus took Bochy to task for his handling of the lineup late in the Benjie Molina walk-off game.
- And the Onion is even mocking this team with the heartwarming story “San Francisco Giants Band Together To Score Run.”
- And the No. 1 reason not to get excited about a three-game winning streak? The 100-loss 1985 Giants had a four-game streak.
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Whoever said Benjie Molina isn’t the greatest cleanup hitter in all of baseball?
Two home runs, including a walk-off shot in the 11th, means he now owns a .600 SLG. Never mind that he hasn’t drawn a walk and his OBP sits below .300 and that he’s never slugged above .467 in a season. Benjie is a cleanup hitter and we shall all believe.
Without MLB.tv (or more specifically the disposable income to purchase MLB.tv this year) I took up the expatriate view of the game: Constantly refreshing Yahoo and FanGraphs to see how everything played out.
My favorite part of the game in a strictly observational sense was Brian Giles’ sac-fly in the ninth. Notice how Tony Clark’s single absolutely killed the Giants chances of winning, putting them below 50 percent for the first time since the second inning.
But when Giles’ got the run in by giving up the out it decreased the expected runs for the remainder of the inning to .55, meaning it wasn’t likely anymore they would get the winning run in. And with the Giants being at home the win probabilty swung in their favor again.
Eugenio Velez did a great job with a single and a stolen base in the 10th, increasing the win probabilty from 64 percent to more than 80, though the double play wiped that out.
Overall Giant pitchers came through when they needed to, lowering the expected runs in seven of the top-10 highest leverage situations. Unfortunately two of those times (the sac-fly and Kahlil Greene’s FC RBI in the sixth) scored runs. And while it’s good that Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson got out of those situations with only one run apiece it’s still never good to get to that point.
Of course the hero of the game was Molina, who came through with .404 WPA.
